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Odds of my Side Suit Being Ruffed
Before leading a side suit and before all the trump cards have been drawn there are odds on
the probabilities of your card being ruffed by opponents
Probabilities
When needing to play a card in a side suit before drawing all the trump cards. Declarer may or may not wish to have this side suit card trumped. Knowing how likely it is that a ruff will occur is statistical information which has been calculated. Having an overview of these statistics helps with playing decisions| Opposition Holding in Declarers Side Suit | Chances of Being Ruffed | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Round Played | 2nd Round Played | 3rd Round Played | 4th Round Played | |
| 2 cards | 48% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 3 cards | 22% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 4 cards | 10% | 60% | 100% | 100% |
| 5 cards | 4% | 32% | 100% | 100% |
| 6 cards | 2% | 17% | 65% | 100% |
| 7 cards | 1% | 8% | 38% | 100% |
Notes on Even numbers of Outstanding Cards
With two cards missing and looking for the King play for the drop - succeeds 52%With four cards missing and looking for the Queen play for the drop -succeeds 52%, card distribution may be 2-2(42%) or 1-3(singleton occurs 11%)
with six cards missing and you are looking for the Jack(54%), card distribution may be 3-3(occurs 35% of the time) or as a doubleton(occurs 18% of the time) or as a singleton(occurs2% of the time)
Notes on Odd numbers of Outstanding Cards
With odd numbers of cards out for example 3, 5, or 7 cards out don't expect to drop either the King, Queen or Jack.Instant Progress Quiz - Check all correct answers
Extra for Experts
A different game on the same subject as this lesson, with questions for community discussion in the comments area below.
PLAY