714
The Opposition Hold Outstanding Cards
Probabilities oththerwise called statistics play an important part in Bridge. Different
declarer play
strategies will lead to success depending on the distribution of opponent's cards. To decide which strategy
has highest odds for success, the declarer should acquire a basic understanding of the probabilities of card
distributions.
Explanation
In the absence of any information from bidding or play to alter the chances, the table below displays the odds of the distribution of any outstanding cards.Generalisations about how the cards Divide
Except for if there are two cards outstanding here are the general rules1.) Odd cards probably do split as evenly as possible
2.) Even cards probably do not split evenly
An example of Information which changes the Odds in the Table Below
For example . Eg a hand which has preempted showing a 6 card spade suit has only 7 ‘vacant spaces’ for other suits while if declarer and dummy together have 5 spades the other defender has 2 spades leaving 11 vacant spaces in that hand. If there are 4 cards in another suit (say diamonds) in those hands the odds of them splitting 2-2 drops 5% while the hand with more vacant spaces is 5 times as likely than the other to hold 3 or 4 diamond suit cardsThe Odds for Opponents Hidden Card Distribution
| Opposition Holdings in a Suit | Split | Percentage Occurring |
|---|---|---|
| 2 cards | 1-1 | 52% |
| 2-0 | 48% | |
| 3 cards | 2-1 | 78% |
| 3-0 | 22% | |
| 4 cards | 2-2 | 41% |
| 3-1 | 50% | |
| 4-0 | 10% | |
| 5 cards | 3-2 | 68% |
| ` | 4-1 | 28% |
| 5-0 | 5% | |
| 6 cards | 3-3 | 35% |
| 4-2 | 49% | |
| 5-1 | 15% | |
| 6-0 | 2% | |
| 7 cards | 4-3 | 62% |
| 5-2 | 30% | |
| 6-1 | 7% | |
| 7-0 | 0.5% | |
| 8 cards | 4-4 | 33% |
| 5-3 | 47% | |
| 6-2 | 17% | |
| 7-1 | 3% | |
| 8-0 | 0.2% | |
| 9 cards | 5-4 | 59% |
| 6-3 | 31% | |
| 7-2 | 9% | |
| 8-1 | 1% | |
| 9-0 | 1% |
Instant Progress Quiz - Check all correct answers
Extra for Experts
A different game on the same subject as this lesson, with questions for community discussion in the comments area below.
PLAY